Hurricane Irma's Destruction in St. Thomas in 2017
The Colorado State University's Tropical Weather and Climate Research Center on Tuesday released its July followup forecast following its April projections.
While the latest forecast saw only slight changes compared to the April projections, it adds 5 days to the number of hurricane days, moving from 35 to 40; 1 additional named storm, moving from 8 to 9; and 5 days to the number of named storm days, moving from 80 to 85.
Below, the complete list (for comparison, go to the April forecast):
CSU in its latest forecast said there's a 58 percent chance that a major hurricane (Category 3-5) may impact the Caribbean this hurricane season. The historical average is 42 percent.
For the U.S. mainland, there's a 69 percent chance of a major hurricane impact this year, a 17 percent increase in probability from historical norms. For the Gulf Coast — the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville — the chance of a major hurricane is 44 percent, compared to the historical average of 30 percent, CSU said.
For the U.S. East Coast, including the Peninsula Florida, the chance of a major storm this year is 45 percent, an increase in risk factor of 14 percent.
The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. CSU said current cool neutral El Niño conditions may transition to weak La Niña conditions by later this summer. Sea surface temperatures averaged across most of the tropical Atlantic and subtropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal.
"We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted," CSU said Tuesday.
CSU said its forecast is based on a new extended-range early July statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 38 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. "We are also including statistical/dynamical models based off data from both the ECMWF SEAS5 model and the Met Office GloSea5 model as two additional forecast guidance tools," CSU said.
