Caribbean Risk Falls Well Below Average as Atlantic Forecast Is Lowered to 9 Storms, 4 Hurricanes and 1 Major Hurricane

Colorado State University researchers have lowered their 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for a second time, now projecting nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane as confidence grows that a strong or very strong El Niño will suppress activity during the season’s peak. The July outlook represents a further reduction from the university’s initial April 9 forecast of 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. CSU lowered those projections on June 10 to 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes before issuing the latest revision. One named storm had formed through July 7, leaving eight named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane forecast for the remainder of the season. The latest outlook calls for what researchers described as a “well below-normal season,” with each principal measure of expected activity falling below its 1991–2020 average. CSU now projects: Nine named storms, compared with the average of 14.4. ...