Atlantic Hurricane Season Opens With Below-Normal Forecast, but Caribbean Still Faces 35% Major Landfall Risk

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins today with forecasters calling for a quieter-than-usual year, but federal and university outlooks continue to stress a point familiar to the Caribbean and the U.S. Virgin Islands: even a below-normal season can produce one storm capable of changing lives, damaging infrastructure and disrupting entire communities. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. As of early Monday, the National Hurricane Center reported no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, giving residents across the region a quiet opening to the season. However, forecasters are cautioning against allowing the lower seasonal outlook to create complacency. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 55 percent chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. The agency’s outlook calls for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major ...