The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, forecasting a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The season officially runs from June 1 through November 30.
NOAA’s forecast includes 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher). Of these, 6 to 10 are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 3 to 5 could reach major hurricane status (Category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA notes a 70% confidence in these projections.
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
This year’s heightened activity is attributed to several atmospheric and oceanic conditions. According to NOAA, continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, low wind shear, and a potentially stronger West African Monsoon are expected to support increased storm formation.
These conditions enhance the environment for tropical wave development, which can give rise to some of the Atlantic’s most powerful and long-lived hurricanes. The current high-activity era in the Atlantic continues, marked by warm ocean heat content and weakened trade winds, both of which fuel and sustain tropical cyclones.
“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” added Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."
For the 2025 season, NOAA is rolling out enhancements in forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery operations, including:
-
An upgrade to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, expected to improve tracking and intensity forecasts by another 5%.
-
The ability for NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center to issue advisories up to 72 hours before storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds reach land.
-
Expansion of the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook to a three-week window, giving emergency responders more time to prepare for storm threats.
NOAA is also making communication tools more accessible and informative:
-
Spanish-language text products for key updates, advisories, and tropical weather outlooks.
-
An experimental forecast cone graphic showing inland hurricane and tropical storm watches/warnings, now including areas with overlapping alerts.
-
A new rip current risk map, activated during any active tropical system, which visualizes coastal danger from swells generated by distant hurricanes.
This season will also feature new innovations:
-
A new experimental radar system (ROARS) will be mounted on NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft to scan beneath the plane and measure ocean wave action and wind structure.
-
The Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, developed by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, provides user-friendly forecasts for rainfall and flash flooding up to three days in advance. This tool follows the devastating 30 inches of inland rain seen during Hurricane Helene in 2024.
NOAA’s outlook is focused on overall seasonal activity, not specific landfall predictions. Seasonal hurricane outlooks for the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific basins have also been released. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic basin in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the hurricane season.
A full list of 2025 hurricane names and additional preparedness resources are available at hurricanes.gov.
