The National Hurricane Center in its 2:00 a.m. Monday forecast said tropical storm watches or warnings could be required "with shorter-than-normal lead times" for a system in the Atlantic that is showing signs of further development and whose path leads to the Leeward Islands, including portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
N.H.C.'s 2:00 a.m. forecast said the low pressure system, which has been producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, was located about 380 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.
"Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by late tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week," said the National Hurricane Center.
It added that tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system, N.H.C. said.
N.H.C. has projected a 50 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours and 60 percent in five days.
Right behind the system nearing the Leeward Islands, a separate system that has also been producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms is losing strength. "The development of this system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph," the N.H.C. said.
Still, it was given a 20 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, and 30 percent through five days.