A new system forming in the Atlantic Ocean could become a tropical depression by mid next week and threaten the Windward Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center. By. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A new system forming in the Atlantic Ocean could become a tropical depression by mid next week and threaten the Windward Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center.
NHC said the system, a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It said environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at around 15 miles per hour over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands.
NHC projected a 20 percent chance of further development in the next 48 hours, based on data the Hurricane Center has collected. The five-day forecast projects a considerable increase in development odds at 60 percent.
If the tropical wave developments further, it would be the first system to threaten the Caribbean during the 2022 Hurricane Season, which commenced on June 1. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service have predicted above-average hurricane activity this year, which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.
According to the release, for the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70 percent confidence.
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon, NOAA said. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.
