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The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a weather system that is projected to see further development and whose path should be monitored by interests in the Leeward Islands, including the U.S. Virgin Islands.
According to N.H.C.'s 2:00 a.m. Thursday forecast, the system — a tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa — is merging with another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
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"Development of this system is likely to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development," N.H.C. said.
N.H.C. gave the system a low chance of development, 20 percent, in the next 48 hours, with the projection growing to high — 70 percent — in the next five days.
Just behind this system is another tropical wave N.H.C. said is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa over the weekend. "An area of low pressure is expected to form from the wave, and some development of this low will be possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic," said the National Hurricane Center.
N.H.C. recently issued a message urging preparedness. "Preparedness is everything when you start thinking about the hurricane season," said Ken Graham, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. "So think about those hazards that stretch well outside that center, well outside the cone."
Mr. Graham said historically water has killed the most people in tropical systems. "So storm surge and that rainfall inland, that's what we got to protect ourselves from."
He added, "Don't forget it's also about the wind and it's also about those tornadoes so knowing your risks, having a plan to mitigate those risks, that's how we stay together in Hurricane Season 2020."
