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The National Hurricane Center at 2:00 a.m. Tuesday gave the latest weather system in the Atlantic a 70 percent chance to develop into a tropical depression any day now, though its future remains in question due to unfavorable conditions later in the week.
According to N.H.C.'s 2:00 a.m. forecast, thunderstorm activity associated with the system — a large low pressure system located more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands — has increased and become a little better organized over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Even so, the conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week, NHC said.
The system's chance of formation for both the 48-hour and 5-day forecasts was 70 percent as of 2:00 a.m. today.
The next storm in the Atlantic will be named Josephine.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last Thursday that atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic, leading to what could be an “extremely active” season, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record. Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5), NOOA said.
“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. NOAA will continue to provide the best possible science and service to communities across the Nation for the remainder of hurricane season to ensure public readiness and safety,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.”
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