An infographic summarizing the updated 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook from NOAA, highlighting the probability of hurricane activity and the predicted number of named storms. Photo Credit: NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has updated its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, projecting an extremely active period that could be one of the busiest on record. With the peak of the season quickly approaching, NOAA’s National Weather Service is emphasizing the importance of preparedness for potential threats, including damaging winds, storm surges, and inland flooding from heavy rainfall.
In its mid-season hurricane outlook update, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has increased the expected number of named storms to 17-24 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 8-13 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), and 4-7 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This forecast includes the four named storms (two tropical storms and two hurricanes) that have already formed this season. Hurricane season spans from June 1 through November 30.
“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Overview
A typical Atlantic hurricane season yields 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes. However, this year’s atmospheric and oceanic conditions support an above-normal season with a 90% probability. The season has only a 10% chance of being near-normal and a negligible chance of being below-normal.
2024 Atlantic hurricane season names include: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William. So far, Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby and Ernesto have formed this season.
“Hurricane Beryl broke multiple long-standing records in the Atlantic basin, and we’re continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Nina is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now.”
Several factors contribute to the expected increase in hurricane activity:
- Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
- Reduced vertical wind shear.
- Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.
- An enhanced west African monsoon.
These conditions are likely to continue into the fall. Notably, the dry Saharan air that inhibited tropical storm development earlier this summer is expected to subside in August.
The ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which began in 1995, continues to favor more active hurricane seasons. Additionally, the potential development of La Nina in the coming months could further reduce wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, promoting storm development and intensification.
NOAA said its Hurricane Season Outlook provides an overall forecast for seasonal activity and is not a landfall prediction. Landfalls are determined by short-term weather patterns, which are predictable only within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center offers tropical weather outlooks up to five days in advance, track and intensity forecasts for individual storms, and issues watches and warnings for specific tropical storms, hurricanes, and associated storm surges.
NOAA is urging everyone to stay informed and be prepared.
