Tropical Wave Being Monitored in Atlantic; Calm Weekend Forecast for USVI and Puerto Rico

Forecasters give a newly emerged tropical wave near Africa little chance of formation over two days and 40 percent over a week. For now, the USVI and Puerto Rico face warm, humid trade-wind conditions, with isolated thunderstorms in Puerto Rico.

  • Staff Consortium
  • September 12, 2025
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The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa, though the system poses no immediate threat to the U.S. Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. The disturbance, noted in the NHC’s 2:00 a.m. outlook on Friday, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern Atlantic.

Forecasters say the wave will move west to west-northwest at 10–15 mph across the Atlantic. Environmental conditions could support some development, but any strengthening is expected to be slow. The NHC gives the system near-zero chances of formation within 48 hours and only a 40 percent chance over the next seven days.

Local Weather Conditions (as of early Friday, September 12):

  • St. Thomas (Charlotte Amalie, 5:53 a.m. AST): 77°F with clear skies, calm winds, and 81 percent humidity. Friday’s forecast calls for a high near 90°F, a slim 8 percent chance of rain, and easterly winds at 10–15 mph. Saturday and Sunday bring a 21 percent chance of showers with highs near 90°F.

  • St. John (Cruz Bay, 5:54 a.m. AST): 76°F with a light northerly breeze, nearby showers, and 88 percent humidity. Friday’s high will be 87°F with a 24 percent chance of showers. The weekend outlook is similar—warm, humid, and scattered showers possible.

  • St. Croix (Christiansted, 5:51 a.m. AST): 79°F, clear skies, light north breeze, and 87 percent humidity. Friday’s high will be 88°F with sun, clouds, and a 12 percent chance of rain. Saturday and Sunday should follow the same pattern, with highs near 88°F and brief showers possible.

  • Puerto Rico (San Juan, 5:52 a.m. AST): 80°F with calm, clear conditions and 84 percent humidity. Friday’s forecast includes thunderstorms in the morning, with up to one inch of rainfall possible. Winds from the east at 10–20 mph. High near 87°F. Saturday brings a 50 percent chance of afternoon showers and storms with highs near 89°F.


As of September 12, the only active system in the Atlantic is a tropical wave off Africa. The U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico can expect mostly calm conditions through the weekend, with Puerto Rico seeing more rainfall. 

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