Periods of passing showers are expected across St. Croix, St. Thomas and St. John on Monday, November 2, potentially disrupting outdoor activities and leaving water ponding on roadways and in poorly drained areas, according to the National Weather Service in San Juan.
In its early Monday forecast, the NWS warned that residents should expect a mixture of sunshine, clouds and intermittent rainfall, with showers most likely during the morning and overnight hours. Warmer-than-normal conditions will also persist, while forecasters are monitoring a developing weather pattern that could bring heavier rainfall and an increased risk of flooding later this week.
The agency's forecast discussion, issued at 3:25 a.m. Monday, indicated that elevated moisture across the region would support passing showers through Tuesday, although drier air at higher levels of the atmosphere should limit widespread thunderstorm development during the first part of the week.
For the Virgin Islands, the primary concern Monday is intermittent rainfall, particularly during the morning hours. Brief downpours could result in ponding along streets and in low-lying areas, although widespread flooding is not currently anticipated.
Conditions are expected to be more unsettled across western and northwestern Puerto Rico during the afternoon, where daytime heating and local atmospheric conditions could produce stronger showers and isolated thunderstorms. Those areas face a greater risk of lightning and urban or small-stream flooding.
The NWS said the developing pattern will be influenced by a gradual shift in winds from the east toward the southeast as high pressure moves across the western Atlantic. The change will also contribute to warmer-than-normal temperatures for early November.
Afternoon temperatures across the Virgin Islands are expected to reach the mid-to-upper 80s, with some locations approaching 90 degrees. Elevated humidity will make conditions feel hotter, particularly in coastal communities and urban areas.
Tuesday could be the warmest day of the early week, with some locations reaching the lower 90s. Forecasters cautioned that heat index values could briefly reach levels that warrant a heat advisory, although no such advisory had been issued for the Virgin Islands as of Monday's early morning discussion.
Residents working outdoors or participating in extended outdoor activities are encouraged to remain hydrated, take regular breaks and limit prolonged exposure to intense heat.
Meanwhile, a potentially more significant change in the weather could begin Wednesday as a developing low-pressure system weakens the prevailing winds and draws additional tropical moisture into the northeastern Caribbean.
The NWS expects the atmosphere to become increasingly moist, allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop more readily. With lighter winds, some downpours could move slowly or remain over the same locations, increasing rainfall accumulations and the potential for localized flooding.
Forecasters identified Thursday through Saturday as a period of particular concern, with atmospheric moisture expected to remain above normal November levels. The preliminary outlook places the flooding risk at Level 2 on a four-level scale, indicating the potential for flooding along roads, in urban communities and near small streams.
Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out if heavier rainfall develops, although the timing and location of the most significant precipitation remain uncertain.
Marine conditions will also require attention during the early part of the week. The NWS expects seas of three to five feet, occasionally reaching six feet, as easterly winds strengthen through Tuesday.
Passing showers and isolated thunderstorms could produce locally stronger winds and rougher seas, prompting forecasters to advise small-craft operators to exercise caution.
Beachgoers face a moderate risk of rip currents along northern and eastern-exposed beaches of the Virgin Islands. While southern beaches generally face a lower risk, dangerous currents can still develop near reefs, piers and other coastal structures.
The NWS said changing weather conditions could affect outdoor plans throughout the week and encouraged residents and visitors to monitor updated forecasts, exercise caution on wet roadways and avoid driving through flooded areas.
No weather watches, warnings or advisories were in effect for the Virgin Islands at the time of the early Monday forecast.
