A tropical depression could develop by the middle of this week, the National Hurricane Center has announced, pointing to a weather system forming in the Atlantic with a 60 percent chance of forming in the coming days.
According to NHC, a broad and elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. "Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands," according to the NHC, a division of the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service.
NHC gave the system a 20 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a 60 percent chance in five days.
Following right behind is a tropical wave which NHC says is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. "Some gradual development of the system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic," according to the update.
The system will not see development in the next 48 hours, but NHC gave it a 20 percent chance of formation in the next five days.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, though the likelihood has decreased slightly from 65 percent to 60 percent.
That's according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”
NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65 percent chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30 percent and the chances remain at 10 percent for a below-normal season.
“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of approaching storms.”
NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA said it provides these ranges with a 70 percent confidence.
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