The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2024 outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season, predicting an 85% chance of above-normal activity. The forecast, announced by the Climate Prediction Center, anticipates a higher than usual number of storms due to a combination of near-record warm ocean temperatures, developing La Nina conditions, and reduced wind shear.
The official season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, could see between 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 possibly escalating to hurricane strength, including 4 to 7 reaching major hurricane status. NOAA's forecasters express a 70% confidence in these projections, highlighting a robust setup for storm formation facilitated by favorable environmental conditions.
As one of the strongest El Ninos concludes, scientists at NOAA foresee a rapid shift to La Nina conditions, favorable for hurricane activity in the Atlantic due to decreased wind shear. Furthermore, an above-normal west African monsoon could spawn stronger and more sustained Atlantic storms.
The increasing oceanic heat content and melting ice contribute to rising sea levels, amplifying the potential impact of hurricanes through heightened storm surge risks.
In response to the growing storm threats, NOAA said it plans significant enhancements in its communication and forecasting capabilities. These include expanded Spanish language advisories, a new experimental forecast cone graphic depicting inland storm threats, and the integration of new forecast models to better predict storm intensification.
The agency will also deploy advanced technologies like Saildrones and underwater gliders to improve storm tracking and intensity predictions. This effort is supported by upgrades to NOAA's observational infrastructure, providing detailed and real-time data crucial for forecasting.
NOAA emphasized the importance of public preparedness, urging residents in hurricane-prone areas to stay informed through reliable sources like hurricanes.gov and to follow updates on social media platforms. Additionally, FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks stresses the need for immediate readiness, citing the unpredictable nature of severe weather and its broader impacts.
NOAA’s seasonal outlook is part of a broader strategy to enhance public awareness and preparedness ahead of potential landfalls. The Climate Prediction Center will provide an updated outlook in early August, ensuring that the latest data and predictive models refine the forecasts as the peak hurricane season approaches.
In conclusion, with the predicted increase in hurricane activity for the 2024 Atlantic season, both NOAA and FEMA underscore the critical importance of preparation and the use of advanced forecasting to mitigate impacts and enhance public safety.
