The National Hurricane Center has sharply lowered the development potential of two tropical waves in the Atlantic, including the system now near the Windward Islands, whose formation chance has fallen to 10 percent even as strong gusty winds and areas of heavy rain remain possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles Saturday.
In its 2 a.m. Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC said the tropical wave near the Windward Islands was producing gusty winds along with an area of showers and thunderstorms.
The system is moving into an environment of increasing upper-level winds and drier air, causing its prospects for becoming a tropical cyclone to decline.
Development is now considered highly unlikely.
The NHC gives the system a 10 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and through seven days, down from the 30 percent probabilities reported Friday.
Despite the reduced development potential, weather associated with the wave could still affect portions of the Lesser Antilles Saturday.
The NHC said strong gusty winds approaching gale force and areas of heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the island chain.
Second Wave Drops to 20 Percent
Farther east, development chances have also declined for the tropical wave previously carrying a 50 percent seven-day probability.
The system was located more than 1,000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands in the central tropical Atlantic early Saturday.
It continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The NHC said some slow development remains possible during the next couple of days.
After that, however, the wave is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds, further reducing its opportunity to organize.
The system now has a 20 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and through seven days.
Friday's outlook had placed its two-day chance at 30 percent and seven-day probability at 50 percent.
The NHC continues to monitor both disturbances across the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, with neither system currently carrying more than a 20 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation.
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