The National Hurricane Center's 2:00 a.m. Sept. 18, 2023 forecast. By NHC
As the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Tropical Storm Nigel over the central subtropical Atlantic, new concerns are rising over a tropical wave forecasted to develop off the west coast of Africa. With a high 70% chance of formation over the next week, the system could potentially impact the Caribbean as it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The NHC is closely monitoring several weather systems in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. While Tropical Storm Nigel remains the immediate concern, it is currently located over the central subtropical Atlantic and poses no immediate threat to the mainland U.S. or Caribbean islands.
The tropical wave set to move off Africa by Wednesday shows promise for significant development. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual formation, and the wave is likely to evolve into a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend. The NHC estimates that there is a low, near 0 percent chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a high 70% chance of formation through the next 7 days. As it currently stands, the system is moving westward, putting the Caribbean Sea on alert for possible impact.
In addition to the tropical wave, the NHC is also keeping an eye on a non-tropical area of low pressure that is forecasted to form near the southeastern coast of the United States later this week. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the weekend, depending on whether it remains offshore. However, the likelihood of formation for this system is currently low, with near 0 percent chance of forming within 48 hours and a 30% chance through the next 7 days.
With the hurricane season in full swing, residents in the Caribbean and along the southeastern U.S. coast are advised to stay updated on the latest weather forecasts and to prepare emergency kits. The NHC said it will continue to monitor these systems and issue updates as more information becomes available.