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A system that was located about 1,000 miles east south-east of the Northern Leeward Islands at 2:00 a.m. Saturday has become better organized and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development in the next day or two, according to the National Hurricane Center.
N.H.C. said a tropical depression is expected to develop later today or tomorrow while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance, N.H.C. said.
However, the system is predicted to face a major obstacle to further intensification by Monday night, when it reaches the Leeward Islands, as a result of a large upper-level trough of low pressure. This trough is predicted to have high wind shear and dry air, and many model forecasts have 95L being destroyed when it encounters the trough, according to Yale's Climate Connection.
The N.H.C. has projected the same outcome: "Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week."
The system was given a 90 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours and through the five-day forecast.
