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The weather system that brought rain and wind to the Leeward Islands on Wednesday has strengthened into Tropical Storm Isaias and will continue affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico until at least this afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center's 5:00 a.m. Thursday forecast. This is the case in part because even as the storm continues to move at 21 miles per hour speeds and is expected to move over Hispaniola later today, Isaias has tropical storm conditions extending 415 miles out, N.H.C. said.
"The potential for flash flooding, mudslides and river flooding will continue throughout the day," N.H.C. said. "Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are also expected."
Governor Albert Bryan on Wednesday announced a curfew that is set to expire at noon today. Mr. Bryan will hold a press briefing at 7:30 a.m today to update residents on his administration's plans.
A hurricane warning remains in effect for the USVI, Puerto Rico, the BVI, the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Southern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, and Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.
According to N.H.C.'s 5:00 a.m. Thursday forecast, the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 67.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola late today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on Friday and Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h).
Rainfall: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations:
British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.
Puerto Rico and northern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.
Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.
Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.
These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.
Surf: Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
