Hurricane Elsa's wind projections graphic by the National Hurricane Center. By. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Hurricane conditions are now spreading through the Windward Islands as Elsa has developed into a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center, which issued hurricane warnings for St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additionally, the Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a hurricane warning for Barbados.
A hurricane watch has been issued for Martinique, the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, and the entire coast of Haiti.
A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours, according to N.H.C. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
The N.H.C. said interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today, including hurricane warnings for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
According to N.H.C., at 8:30 a.m. the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 60.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.
Reports from Barbados indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Barbados recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 mph (138 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). Barbados recently reported a pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches).
Key Message
- Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected elsewhere in the hurricane warning area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.
- Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late into Saturday and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.
- There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portion of Cuba, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.
- There is a risk of storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts to the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.
Wind: Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados, and are expected in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early Sunday.
Storm Surge: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and along the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Rainfall: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.
Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.
