The U.S. Virgin Islands’ population is projected to fall from 83,896 in 2026 to 49,331 by 2100, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures released Thursday, November 5. That would amount to 34,565 fewer residents, a decline of approximately 41 percent, as falling fertility and continued outmigration reduce the territory’s population.
The new estimates and projections are the first International Database update since 2017 to revise the outlook for the USVI, American Samoa, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. All four are projected to end the century with smaller populations than they have in 2026.
The USVI’s projected population falls to 82,139 in 2030, 76,430 in 2040 and 70,187 in 2050. The database lists an annual population growth rate of minus 0.46 percent for 2026.
For the Virgin Islands, the bureau also projects that deaths could begin exceeding births as early as 2027, a condition demographers call natural decrease. The territory’s total fertility rate fell from 2.5 children per woman in 2007 to 1.9 in 2026, below the 2.1 replacement level cited by the agency in its analysis of the new projections.
Migration is contributing to the decline. The USVI’s 2026 net migration rate was minus 5.4 per 1,000 residents, meaning departures exceeded arrivals. Census researchers said net outmigration increased sharply between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, likely linked to an oil-refinery shutdown, hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017, and persistent economic and structural problems.
“Such long-term declines are driven by a combination of falling fertility and persistent outmigration,” Census Bureau statisticians Sophia Magalona and Rachel J. Bacon wrote. The projection nevertheless assumes net outmigration will gradually diminish and reach zero by 2100, rather than continuing at its current rate throughout the century.
A decline already recorded across the territory
The long-term projection follows a substantial population loss documented in the 2020 Census. The territory counted 87,146 residents, down from 106,405 in 2010, a decrease of 19,259 people, or 18.1 percent.
St. Croix’s population fell from 50,601 to 41,004, a loss of 9,597 residents, or 19 percent. St. Thomas declined from 51,634 to 42,261, a loss of 9,373, or 18.2 percent. St. John recorded a smaller decline, falling from 4,170 to 3,881, or 6.9 percent.
The Consortium reported those census results in October 2021. The new 41 percent projection uses 2026 as its comparison year, rather than the territory’s 2020 census count.
The census also documented a population with more older adults than children. In demographic results released in 2023, residents age 65 and older accounted for 21.3 percent of the USVI population in 2020, compared with 19.6 percent under age 18. The median age was 45.9 years; the new International Database lists a median age of 48.5 for 2026.
How the projections are developed
The International Database is the official U.S. government source for population estimates and projections for the four island territories. It provides annual midyear population figures and information on fertility, mortality and migration, drawing on censuses, surveys, administrative records and vital statistics.
The bureau uses a method that follows groups of people by age and sex through time, applying assumptions about births, deaths and migration. Its methodology statement cautions that the accuracy of the results is limited by the quality of the underlying data and by assumptions about future demographic changes that may prove inaccurate. The 2100 figure is therefore a projection, rather than a new census count or a certain outcome.
Among the other territories included in the update, American Samoa is projected to lose 61 percent of its 2026 population by 2100, Guam 38 percent and the Northern Mariana Islands 17 percent. The November release also revised estimates and projections for 21 countries; the bureau’s next International Database update is planned for November 2027.
